PECULIARITIES OF MORTALITY FROM NEOPLASMS IN THE KRASNOYARSK TERRITORY

Abstract

Objective. To determine the characteristics of mortality from cancer in the Krasnoyarsk territory and the possible causes of their formation.

Methodology. Dynamics of the standardized mortality rates from cancer in 1989-2014 in the Krasnoyarsk territory, the Russian Federation and the Siberian Federal District was analyzed. Cancer mortality structure by age (per five-year intervals) and causes for 2000-2002 and 2012-2014 were also analyzed. Mortality dynamics and rates were compared for age groups up to 70 years and 70 years and older.

Results. Trends in mortality of men and women in country and the District were reliably described by linear equations, which predicted a further reduction in mortality. The best mathematical description of mortality dynamics in the Krasnoyarsk territory were obtained using polynomial equations of second order, which predicted a further increase in mortality rate. The increase of mortality in the Krasnoyarsk territory was not on the whole age scale but only for age group of 70 years and older. For the Krasnoyarsk territory the expected average age of men who died from cancer in 2014 almost reached the average Russian level while their life expectancy lagged behind the average figure for the country at 1.7 years. Women of the Krasnoyarsk territory died from cancer at a later age than in the country as a whole (69.97 against 69.46) but their life expectancy was a year and a half less than average Russian figure. In the Krasnoyarsk territory cancer mortality structure by causes did not fundamentally change since the beginning of the millennium despite the significant increase in proportion of older persons in population. At the same time there was a threefold increase in male mortality and a twofold increase in female mortality from non-defined and benign neoplasms over a ten year period. In the Krasnoyarsk territory the proportion of age group of 70 years and older in mortality from nondefined and benign neoplasms increased from 14.6% among men and 16.9% among women in 2000-2002 to 45.6% and 51.3% in 2012-2014.

Conclusion. The peculiarity of mortality from neoplasms in the Krasnoyarsk territory (high level and growth only in age group of 70 years and older, pronounced increase in mortality from benign and non-defined neoplasms) may be due to overdiagnosis of death from cancer among the elderly.